Current trends and historical comparisons don’t paint a pretty picture for the fashion industry
The Short Version
The retail sector at large, and the fashion industry specifically, has been having a rough time staying afloat the past two years. While a wave of populism sweeps the US and parts of Europe, fashion labels are beginning to worry that populist politics could gut fashion worse than Germany did during WWII. The comparison is frightening and gives designers more reason to insert politics into fashion.
The Long Cut
Fashion appears to be on the verge of crisis. I mentioned more than once during this past season’s coverage on Pattern that there were several names missing from the schedule, but didn’t take the time to explain why. Let’s do a bit of that now.
BCBG Max Azria has been hurting for a while and confirmed it would be seeking bankruptcy protection March 1. There were announcements that all the stores would be closing as the company shifts its attention to online sales. None of that was terribly surprising, given sales trends for the past few years. However, what did catch people off guard was when Lubov Azria, the long-time creative director, CEO, and wife of founder Max Azria, announced she is stepping down from the company completely. She is being replaced in both the corporate and creative positions by Bernd Kroeber, who has been with the brand since 2007. This announcement is generally viewed as a desperate attempt to revitalize a brand whose look and reputation seems stuck in the 90s.
The last SIBLING runway we covered was the autumn/winter 16 season last year. The amazingly popular show had erred in not requiring tickets for their presentation and, as a result, a number of editors and buyers were left out in the cold. When September came, we weren’t able to view the show due to scheduling conflicts, but in looking at the pictures we could tell something wasn’t quite right. The death of founding member Joe Bates due to cancer in 2015 was taking its toll. This season, SIBLING wasn’t on the official London schedule at all (they showed off-schedule). Then, this past Friday (March 10), the label announced they were entering liquidation. Shutting down. Game over. No immediate reason was given.
Then, catching everyone by surprise, THAKOON, the New York-based label backed by Hong Kong investor Vivian Chou, announced that the label is being put “on hold.” This comes less than a month after the label showed its current season collection in New York. While no date has been given for full closure, current inventory is being sold quickly. The reason being given is that the brand’s business model does not line up with the current retail market. Whether we will ever see another THAKOON collection coming down the runway seems doubtful at this point.
Those are just the latest in a line of recent closures that are punching larger and larger holes in the fashion industry. At the same time, department stores such as Macy’s and Saks are struggling to stay afloat as well. Should the department stores go down, the blow to the fashion industry overall would be tremendous.
Understandably, designers are very nervous. Toss international politics into the fray, though, and designers are downright scared. We saw the application of some of that fear this past season as many designers chose some form of protest, some more obvious than others, during their runway presentations. While outsiders wonder if the rhetoric has any substance, those in the fashion industry see the move toward populism as troubling. Already, the US and UK have populist leaders and designers in both countries are bracing themselves for what might be coming next.
One of the biggest reasons for such concern is that nationalism leads to closed markets and lack of access to the international talent pool on which fashion relies. Already, some 97 percent of all fashion is imported in the US, including the president’s own brand, and those of his daughter. What might be a more important number, however, is realizing that even when clothing is manufactured in the US, much of that work is being done by immigrants, roughly 20 percent of whom are undocumented. Any disruption in either trade or immigration is going to adversely affect the fashion industry and both, at this juncture, seem imminent.
Opening Ceremony’s creative directors Carol Lim and Humberto Leon, both of whom are second-generation immigrants, have never shied away from using their clothing line as means of making a political statement, but since the elections last November have found it all the more critical to be steadfastly aware of the current immigration status not only for themselves but many of the people with whom they work. Most recently, they cooperated with Justin Peck, New York City Ballet’s resident choreographer, in the production of a new piece, The Times Are Racing. The ballet looks at how the lives of first-generation immigrants affect the lives of their children as they assimilate into the world, a timely topic under most any circumstances. However, between its debut, on a Thursday, and its second performance, on the following Saturday, something changed. The president signed a travel ban leaving thousands stranded at John F. Kennedy and suddenly the protest of the ballet was being mirrored in real life. Dancers, leaping across the stage in t-shirts that read “Act,” “Defy,” “Protest,” “Shout,” and “Change,” were no longer part of what had happened but were now part of what is happening.
The Council of Fashion Designers in America (CFDA), the organization that represents US-based designers, has already been looking at the problems caused by the shift in policies and what might be done to offset the consequences. There don’t seem to be many positive options. CFDA president Diane von Furstenberg, herself a Belgian-born immigrant, said, “The fashion industry has always been a reflection of what America is all about… inclusion and diversity. I am personally horrified to see what is going on.”
New York–based designer Linda Abdalla, who was born in Ireland and raised in Ohio, told Vice magazine, “It even affects the tailors and the seamstresses, and some of the best ones come from countries that are on the banned list. … Having designers and artists coming from those countries, having this ban on people coming to visit, or study, or work for these brands is a big deal. I just started meeting more African designers who are coming to the states, but this is just another block.”
Even in France, National Front leader Marine Le Pen is leading in polls ahead of April-May elections and has said she will push for the country to leave the European Union and close France’s borders, which would be crippling to the Parisian fashion industry, one of the most influential in the world. France’s current minister of culture, Audrey Azoulay, told the Associated Press, “populist powers” are “absolutely incompatible with the idea of fashion and freedom.”
One of the reasons fashion designers and CEOs are so alarmed is because they or their predecessors have seen this before. Many fashion houses, especially those in Europe, are well over 100 years old, some of them, such as Pringle of Scotland, more than 200 years old. Embedded in those fashion catalogs are the evidence of how international politics and upheaval affect the fashion industry.
Consider the fact that we no longer look to Germany as a fashion power. Yet, prior to the rise of Adolf Hitler in that country, Berlin was just as much a fashion capital as Paris or Milan. What happened? At its peak, Germany was home to approximately 2,400 Jewish-owned clothing labels and garment manufacturers. Between 1933 and 1938, all of those companies disappeared because of one person’s severe anti-immigration stance. Imports were forbidden. Exports completely dried up. The fashion industry in Germany died.
Some of the effects of the populist politics from that era still persist. The “Made it Italy” label sewn into garments from Armani to Gucci to Fendi started under Mussolini in an effort to convince Italian women to stop buying their dresses from Paris. While the label is seen today as more of a marketing tool, the nationalistic purpose has never gone away and Italy is still more closed to immigrant designers and foreign textiles than are other countries.
Fashion is a globally dependent industry, reliant on the international travel of both people and material in order to survive. Designers such as Calvin Klein’s Raf Simons regularly travel back and forth between New York and Europe and around the world not only for inspiration for their collections but to discover new fabrics and textile technologies. When politicians begin cutting off access to the global market, either through import/export taxes or through travel bans of any kind, they drive a knife deep into the heart of the fashion industry.
Most reliant on the free flow of textiles are the “fast fashion” retailers such as H&M and Forever 21 whose low prices are dependent upon garments manufactured at the lowest possible prices, usually in places such as Turkey and Bangladesh. Were imports from those countries to see a new tax of 25 percent or more, as has been suggested by the US administration, fashion retailers across the board, from Macy’s to Wal-Mart would feel the negative effect. Stores would have little choice but to pass the increased costs on to the consumers, resulting in an unprecedented amount of inflation. Eliminate those imports entirely and H&M and its competitors would have little choice but to close. Completely.
The rhetoric of populist politics always sounds good on the surface. “Make America Great.” “America first.” “Buy American.” Yet, history has proven that such nationalism and the fashion industry don’t mix. Fashion has to be open. Fashion, as an industry, must move as freely as a summer dress. There can be no borders. There can be no domestic restrictions. Try to put fashion in a box, even if it is flag-draped, and not only will an industry die, but the economies dependent upon that industry will be crippled.
Fortunately, designers are not the kind of people likely to just slip quietly away. As we saw this past season, they intend to speak up, to use their voices not just on the runway but on store shelves and even on the bodies of their customers to express opposition.
Larger groups are getting in on the action as well because bad laws that affect one sector affect them all. To that end, the National Retail Federation (NRF) released this ad last month in opposition to what’s being called a “border adjustment tax.”
The NRF has a strong lobbying presence in the US Congress and is working against any new legislation that would be of any detriment to the already struggling retail sector.
Now, let’s bring the matter home.
Consider what you are wearing right now. Assuming the clothes were not a gift, how much did you pay for them? $10? $100? Maybe $350 for the whole outfit, including the shoes. Americans are notorious bargain shoppers and hate paying full price for anything (which is a problem unto itself). So, what happens if a 25% tax is pushed on to the customer. The actual price increase is going to be closer to 30% to cover additional administration in filing the tax. So, that $10 item is now $13. Doesn’t seem like much. The $100 dress is now $130, which still doesn’t sound like a horrible increase unless you’re on a budget, in which case crossing that $100 line may not be possible. That $350 outfit though is closer to $450, and if you’re someone who likes designer labels in your clothes that 30 percent adds up even faster.
Oh wait, we’re not done. You can’t wear just one outfit every day (though I know some who would try). Consider how much you spend on clothes for your family each year. The kids’ school uniforms. The shoes (almost none of which are made in the US). The underwear (almost all of which is imported). Can you really afford a 30=50 percent increase in your clothing budget on top of all the other prices that are increasing along with it?
If you’re part of the one percent of the US population that makes over $521,411 a year, you might not be too concerned. The rest of us, however, have every reason to worry.
Populist politics, from nationalistic protectionism to anti-immigration restrictions and overly protective import tariffs are not only bad for the fashion industry, they are equally bad for your life, your children’s lives, and your future.
You might want to consider contacting your members of Congress now.
Saturday, January 25, 2025
Some Things Are Satire
There is a lot of ‘stuff’ I could talk about, but it would take me forever to type it and I’m not sure my body is going to give me the grace to sit upright for that long. I’ll do what I can today and we can continue the conversation tomorrow. During my doctor’s visit yesterday, I was given a flu shot and the first half of the shingles vaccine. Kat reminded me last night that I’m older than the last time I received those shots. My body isn’t up to fighting as hard. I know, not everyone thinks vaccines work. There are some pretty nasty side effects if you don’t stay on schedule, though. My stamina is going to take a hit for the next couple of weeks.
Another concern is that Americans are becoming bored with being outraged. Felonious Punk has been in office less than a week and already, the NYTimes is declaring that the era of ‘Hyperpolitics’ is gone, and with it the whole concept of Resistance. Fellow Okie and deep thinker Krista Trippet wrote in this morning’s “On Being” post, “The news that is, as we say ‘breaking,’ is never seeing things whole.” She encourages us to take a deeper look and consider the aspects of deeper time, much as a geologist views the world. She writes, “It is harder for us to train our eyes and imaginations on the beauty and creativity that are so alive in our world, the generative learning and stretching that are underway. These realities of our time are most visible close to home, in the worlds that we can see and touch. They are quiet. They do not trip the fear center of our brains, which inclines us to attend more seriously in every moment to what feels dangerous and destructive. And, in our time, that narrative of danger and destruction comes to us a thousand times, a thousand ways, each day.”
That “narrative of danger and destruction” was a hard slap in the face this morning. It’s bad enough that a drunken serial abuser is now in charge of the Department of Defence. Our new Secretary of State has already been warned by China to watch his step. The pause on foreign aid could threaten the distribution of lifesaving drugs. The ban on gender research puts NIH programs at risk. The shutdown of the federal diversity office at the National Science Foundation breaks the law that created it. In all the places that actually matter to our lives, there is fear, uncertainty, and panic. Should the planet be struck with another pandemic, our lack of international cooperation places us among the most vulnerable, and most likely to die.
There’s also the false narrative being pushed by the White House. The Associated Press is one of the few outlets still fact-checking the lies and misdirection coming from the talking mouths in Washington. There seems to be little regard for what is true or factual. Without anyone doing fact-checking anymore, lies and conspiracies run rampant across all forms of social media and far too many people are believing all the wrong stories.
Meanwhile, 2024 US home sales hit the lowest level in nearly 30 years with ownership increasingly out of reach.
Part of me still wants to scream “FIGHT BACK!” but in the rare moment of sanity, I have to admit that going to war against a well-funded and reasonably trained government is a fool’s game. Even if I gathered all my neighbors together and armed them well, the government has a history of bombing the fuck out of neighborhoods it doesn’t like (think Tulsa and Philadelphia). It would be naive to think such horrors won’t happen again.
Perhaps the best move for any of us is to take a more defensive position. We don’t need to go charging against ICE to be effective, all we have to do is wait for them to come to us and then stonewall. We don’t know any undocumented people. We haven’t seen anyone illegal in the neighborhood. Post “Private Property” signs on every side of your house. Get big dogs that don’t like uniforms (we have two, and the UPS guy is their sworn enemy). ICE can only operate in public areas without a warrant. Reduce the number of ‘public’ areas and we reduce the number of places where they can catch people off guard.
Already, a New Jersey ICE raid has detained a US veteran and citizens, according to the town’s mayor. Such events are only going to grow in size and number. Are any of us safe? Is carrying a driver’s license enough or do we need to carry copies of our birth certificates to prove our citizenship?
What protections do we all need to take? Since my general inclination is to avoid conflict at all costs, I feel ill-prepared to potentially have to confront anyone, especially an authority figure brazen enough to violate the Constitution. If we’re going to ‘stand up’ against the crimes of this administration, then we need to take some precautions to protect ourselves. So, I decided to take a page from those who’ve never trusted the government and look at tactical gear that makes sense for people like you and me.
Let’s start with basic chest protection. Be aware that not all tactical vests are created equal. You want a plate carrier that can handle the right size of protective plates to keep you safe. Looking around, I think this Shellback Tactical Banshee Plate Carrier is probably a good starting point. Click here for more info.
Plate carriers are useless if you don’t have plates in them. The challenge is knowing which plate is best for you. WARNING: DO NOT USE METAL PLATES! METAL PLATES ARE FOR TARGETS, NOT PROTECTION! As far as I can tell, these LTC 26605 Multi Curve Level 4 SAPI Plates are among the best in the business. They should stop almost anything that a DOJ employee (such as ICE) might be carrying. What’s important here is making sure you get the size that fits you. Shop carefully.
Ya’ gotta have a belt and a belt liner to help hold shit together. The DM Mech belt pad and it’s companion inner belt should keep you in good shape and they’re not as expensive as some others. Tactical people I (sort of) trust say these are the best on the market.
Next up: This dump pouch from DM. Why? ‘Cause ya’ gotta hold things like your Gatorade, evidence, gun magazines, etc. This one lies flat and unassuming when empty, hangs nicely on your belt, and won’t rip or tear when you get too excited and catch it on a door frame or something.
If you’re carrying a gun you’re gonna need a mag pouch or two. Which one depends on what kind of weapon you’re carrying. Generally speaking, the Esstac KYWI pouches seem to be top-of-the-line. Ask yourself, though, are you really prepared to get into a firefight with anyone? If you don’t have the training to know when and how to change mags under pressure, then maybe you should ease back on the aggression a little bit, ‘kay?
Finally, because you’re reading this page, I am pretty sure that you’re going to need an Individual First Aid Kit (IFAK) to go with your gear. Again, I’m going with this DM Fast Pouch because if you’re been injured, you need to act quickly to keep yourself from bleeding out all over the place. What do you put in it? North American Rescue has a one-handed tourniquet that is the kind used by military forces. They have plenty of other first aid considerations as well. Some of you are more clumsy than I am so you might want to consider multiple IFAKs.
Yeah, I know that for some people that feels like a lot. For others, it may not be enough. I strongly advise that you not get in over your head here. There’s a damn good reason Kat doesn’t like the idea of me carrying a gun. The Marine is the marksman in the family anyway and there’s little point in carrying a weapon you don’t know how to use accurately. Mishandling weapons will kill you faster than ICE will. At the end of the day, no DOJ or law enforcement official wants to kill anyone because the paperwork alone is suffocating.
There’s still so much more I could write about this morning, but breathing is a challenge at the moment so I need to stop and address that issue. Am I advocating that you arm yourself? Not really. I suggest considering what you can do to protect yourself. You alone know where your comfort level is. All I ask is that you keep yourself sufficiently prepared for whatever level of stupidity comes knocking on your door or your workplace.
And stay caffienated, please. You don’t aim well when your eyes are half shut.
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