The world that we all knew before, could wake up in feeling safe… now it seems that everything has been turned upside down. —Tori Amos
Upside down. That’s the only way I know how to explain what is happening to the world this morning.
Normally, I wouldn’t bother writing about matters of foreign politics. We have more than enough trouble here in the US with complete ineffectiveness of our own political system. However, what Britain has done in voting to leave the European Union (EU) is not only a move that has devastating consequences for the island nation, but a ripple effect the covers the entire globe. Because the British Empire was once so extreme, everywhere they once touched is now affected by what has been termed the “Brexit.”
This may well be a warning for other countries considering any kind of selfish, “Make __________ Great Again” nationalistic-motivated action. As we watch what is only the beginning of a flood of consequences, perhaps we now realize just how interconnected the world is. One country’s mistake has devastating effects for every country with which it conducts business, accepts visitors or is an ally. Yet, because no other country dares interfere with the domestic politics of another, we have no choice but to sit by and watch.
Current Conditions
By the time most people read this, business in the UK will have closed for the day and won’t resume until Monday. Announcing the results of the vote on a Friday gave markets and people a chance to react but, hopefully, the weekend provides an opportunity for some of the shock to fade so that cooler heads prevail when markets open on Monday. Still, as I’m typing, here’s what’s happening.
- The pound has fallen to a 31-year low against the dollar. A renegotiation of all major trade treaties seems necessary.
- The Financial Times Stock Exchange (FTSE) index opened with a straight-line drop of -9% but has recovered to an overall loss of -4.5%
- Germany’s DAX is off -6.16%
- France’s CAC index is in the red – 7.73%
- Spain’s IBEX is taking the biggest hit at -9.98%
- British stocks have lost an estimated value over £122 billion
Take a deep breath. This is going to hurt. If there is a silver lining in all this chaos, it is not making itself visible at this point. England’s GDP could fall as much as 3%. Pensions for younger workers could be completely erased. This upside down condition is not a happy place to be.
Fashion Takes A Hit
One business that is extremely concerned about the Brexit is London’s fashion industry. Business of Fashion lists Burberry, Mulberry, and Jimmy Choo among the victims in early trading. Luxury clothing markets were already having a rough year and the volatility the Brexit brings to the market isn’t going to help any. Many of Britain’s major labels are likely to find they have to severely cut expenditures and manage cash flow carefully.
What this means is that London Fashion Week coming up September 16-20 is likely to be even smaller as designers whose margins are already thin opt out at least for the season. For those who do stay in, collections are likely to be smaller and presentations will almost certainly be less extravagant. Frugality is the name of the game for those who hope to survive. Getting British goods off the island just became a lot harder. There is no upside here for fashion
Caroline Rush, chief executive of the British Fashion Council, said in a statement early this morning:
There was an overwhelming support from our designer survey for the UK to remain in Europe and there will no doubt be upset and dismay at today’s result that will prompt an outreach to our friends, partners, business colleagues in Europe. We now have a role to play in keeping the government updated on our industry’s priorities and keeping the designer community updated on any likely impact to business as our country prepares to leave the EU over the coming years.
A Warning For America
As the United States considers the possible election of a Republican nominee whose personality and concepts share many traits with UK Independence Part leader Nigel Farage, we need to watch carefully and consider how our own election might have similar results.
The United States doesn’t exist in a cocoon where it takes care of itself with no attention to the outside world. Our levels of global trade are higher than ever. We cannot simply back out of agreements and treaties that make business possible for hundreds of thousands of American companies. Our dependency on trade with Mexico is one of the highest. If we build a wall, that trade is destroyed and American companies and consumers suffer most. The same applies to China, Japan, and the EU.
Furthermore, our standing in the international community would erode further. England is just beginning to see how their Brexit vote puts them at odds with the rest of Europe. Several companies have announced plans to leave England completely, dumping thousands of employees onto the unemployment rolls. Britain will lose its last AAA credit rating when it next comes up for review. Prices for goods produced outside Britain rise as higher tariffs are anticipated.
One bad judgement call started it all.
Not Much Left
We are seeing now just how severely this vote divides the UK, much as our own country is divided. Scottish first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, says that Scotland will almost certainly hold another referendum on leaving the UK, given that the whole of Scotland voted to remain with the EU. Members of Ireland’s Sein Finn also made statements this morning that the vote will likely fuel an effort to reunite Northern Ireland with the rest of the country. In the end, the UK may have nothing left but England and Wales by the time the Brexit is complete.
Such waves of populism are one of the primary arguments against democratic forms of government: there’s no way to stop the stupid. Every intelligent voice both inside the UK and around the world warned against the Brexit, but nationalistic-minded conservatives, fueled by an unrealistic fear of immigration, paid no attention to the warning.
A full exit from the EU will take approximately two years. There will be a lot of negotiation between the UE and the UK regarding trade, travel, and currency exchange. We have no way of knowing which direction those talks might go. However, when there are 28 countries teaming up against one that was always cantankerous, complaining, and acting like a bully, it doesn’t seem likely that Britain comes out on top.
The mighty have fallen. The world is upside down and twisting in the wind. Our best hope at the moment is that Americans don’t make the situation worse come November.
Smart or Stupid, Is That A Question?
I’m not the smartest fellow in the world, but I can sure pick smart colleagues. —Franklin D. Roosevelt
Is there a problem with being smart or are we trying to justify stupid?
Americans, apparently more than any other country, have an obsession with being smart. We heap praises on those who demonstrate intelligence beyond the norm and we get upset when we realize that our educational system is producing graduates who can only read at a fifth-grade level. Even our television viewing skews toward characters we perceive as smart. Programs such as Scorpion and Elementary (based on the character of Sherlock Holmes), consistently generate high ratings. We even like our comedy smart. The highest rated sitcom, for multiple seasons, is The Big Bang Theory, where we watch allegedly intelligent scientist bumble their way through life. One of the reasons we like that show is because it delivers lines like these:
The bluntness of the exchange makes us laugh, but at the same time, we recognize the intelligence of Sheldon’s response and consider ourselves smart when we use that line on someone else the next day. We like being smart. Although, perhaps more correctly, we like thinking that we’re smart. Many of us are lacking in cognitive skills. The intelligence of television characters doesn’t rub off and make us smarter. Some people are stupid.
We Have A Problem
Once upon a time, the rate of acceleration in IQ among high school graduates was pretty impressive. Psychologist James Flynn found that from 1932 to 1978, IQ scores in the US increased by 13.8 percent. Putting that in other terms, a score that was average in 1932 would be in the bottom 20% in 1978. Yay us! I’m in that 1978 group. We’re smart!
Unfortunately, that trend failed to continue. Just because we give allegiance to intelligence doesn’t mean we’re all doing well in the brain category. Measurements are tough to come by and even more difficult to verify, but that are glimpses of where we stand. Consider that the College Board, the entity that administers the SAT, considers a score of 500 as a benchmark for who will do well in college. Not everyone takes the SAT, but if we look at states where the test is free and participation over 90 percent, we find that only 33 to 40 percent scored above that benchmark.
An article published this month in The Atlantic, while trying very hard to convince us that there is an unfair war on stupidity, admits that:
… less intelligent people are more likely to suffer from some types of mental illness, become obese, develop heart disease, experience permanent brain damage from a traumatic injury, and end up in prison, where they are more likely than other inmates to be drawn to violence. They’re also likely to die sooner.
Being Smart Isn’t Easy
I was amused by Jeffrey Zacks’ essay published on aeon disproving brain-training games and exploring how difficult it is to expand our level of intelligence. His list of things that are marketed as improving our intelligence, such as programs offered by Lumosity, which rocketed to a high of 50 million users, and PositScience, which isn’t quite as popular but uses a similar methodology, is long. He makes a very good case against brain-training, especially.
One of the general issues with many of the concepts that are supposed to help us improve our brains is that they only focus on one particular segment, usually related to memory. For example, does anyone else remember those little plastic games with the tiles that moved around to create a picture, or put numbers in order? Those little devils actually help advance our cognitive ability, but only in the area of recognizing patterns. Likewise, those tricks for helping remember people’s names do improve some memory skills, but only in terms of memorizing lists. The effects are not transferable.
While we think of Adderall and Ritalin as being primarily used with children who have attention deficit issues, there is evidence of them improving the cognitive ability in normal adults as well. This area of study might actually be promising accept for the fact that the effects are short term. They give a momentary boost of cognitive enhancement, but then it stops as the drug wears off and over time the “crash” goes below the starting baseline. Users are trading a moment of lessened ability for a moment of enhanced performance. Oh, and the drug that works best? Nicotine. Go figure.
Solutions Are Available
Strip away the biases of both articles, and what we find are solutions that can make us all smarter and reduce the rate of stupidity (yes, I’m using the word) that seems to be prevalent over a frightening number of people. We simply cannot excuse the growing trend among those whose cognitive abilities are diminished to demonize those who are smart. Atul Gawande, in his commencement address to the California Institute of Technology, made an interesting conclusion after talking about the growing distrust of science:
Even more than what you think, how you think matters. The stakes for understanding this could not be higher than they are today, because we are not just battling for what it means to be scientists. We are battling for what it means to be citizens.
Indeed, we need to be smart and that means we need to do the things that not only make us smarter, but put us back on track toward making our children and grandchildren smarter as well. Top priorities must be decreasing poverty and improving the quality and availability of early childhood education. One of our most stupid moves comes when we oppose funding that can solve both those problems. At the same time, nutrition and exercise, especially cardiovascular activities such as swimming, biking, and walking, are among the best ways to not only increase cognitive ability but prevent its decline as we get older. We have options.
Is This Really A Choice?
One thing for certain is that I’m not going to stop calling out those actions that are stupid. Perhaps we do need to be more careful in clarifying that, generally speaking, it is one’s actions and not the specific individual who is stupid. At the same time, though, we must realize that we are not nearly as smart as we like to think. We could be much smarter, even if we’re older and out of school. Our future depends on increasing our country’s overall intelligence so that we don’t do something incredibly stupid like nominating a bigoted, racist, homophobic, xenophobic, reality television host for president.
Oops, it may already be too late.
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