The world that we all knew before, could wake up in feeling safe… now it seems that everything has been turned upside down. —Tori Amos
When what we know takes a dramatic and unexpected turn, our perspective is that the world has turned upside down. Maybe it has.
Upside down. That’s the only way I know how to explain what is happening to the world this morning.
Normally, I wouldn’t bother writing about matters of foreign politics. We have more than enough trouble here in the US with complete ineffectiveness of our own political system. However, what Britain has done in voting to leave the European Union (EU) is not only a move that has devastating consequences for the island nation, but a ripple effect the covers the entire globe. Because the British Empire was once so extreme, everywhere they once touched is now affected by what has been termed the “Brexit.”
This may well be a warning for other countries considering any kind of selfish, “Make __________ Great Again” nationalistic-motivated action. As we watch what is only the beginning of a flood of consequences, perhaps we now realize just how interconnected the world is. One country’s mistake has devastating effects for every country with which it conducts business, accepts visitors or is an ally. Yet, because no other country dares interfere with the domestic politics of another, we have no choice but to sit by and watch.
Current Conditions
By the time most people read this, business in the UK will have closed for the day and won’t resume until Monday. Announcing the results of the vote on a Friday gave markets and people a chance to react but, hopefully, the weekend provides an opportunity for some of the shock to fade so that cooler heads prevail when markets open on Monday. Still, as I’m typing, here’s what’s happening.
- The pound has fallen to a 31-year low against the dollar. A renegotiation of all major trade treaties seems necessary.
- The Financial Times Stock Exchange (FTSE) index opened with a straight-line drop of -9% but has recovered to an overall loss of -4.5%
- Germany’s DAX is off -6.16%
- France’s CAC index is in the red – 7.73%
- Spain’s IBEX is taking the biggest hit at -9.98%
- British stocks have lost an estimated value over £122 billion
Take a deep breath. This is going to hurt. If there is a silver lining in all this chaos, it is not making itself visible at this point. England’s GDP could fall as much as 3%. Pensions for younger workers could be completely erased. This upside down condition is not a happy place to be.
Fashion Takes A Hit
One business that is extremely concerned about the Brexit is London’s fashion industry. Business of Fashion lists Burberry, Mulberry, and Jimmy Choo among the victims in early trading. Luxury clothing markets were already having a rough year and the volatility the Brexit brings to the market isn’t going to help any. Many of Britain’s major labels are likely to find they have to severely cut expenditures and manage cash flow carefully.
What this means is that London Fashion Week coming up September 16-20 is likely to be even smaller as designers whose margins are already thin opt out at least for the season. For those who do stay in, collections are likely to be smaller and presentations will almost certainly be less extravagant. Frugality is the name of the game for those who hope to survive. Getting British goods off the island just became a lot harder. There is no upside here for fashion
Caroline Rush, chief executive of the British Fashion Council, said in a statement early this morning:
There was an overwhelming support from our designer survey for the UK to remain in Europe and there will no doubt be upset and dismay at today’s result that will prompt an outreach to our friends, partners, business colleagues in Europe. We now have a role to play in keeping the government updated on our industry’s priorities and keeping the designer community updated on any likely impact to business as our country prepares to leave the EU over the coming years.
A Warning For America
As the United States considers the possible election of a Republican nominee whose personality and concepts share many traits with UK Independence Part leader Nigel Farage, we need to watch carefully and consider how our own election might have similar results.
The United States doesn’t exist in a cocoon where it takes care of itself with no attention to the outside world. Our levels of global trade are higher than ever. We cannot simply back out of agreements and treaties that make business possible for hundreds of thousands of American companies. Â Our dependency on trade with Mexico is one of the highest. If we build a wall, that trade is destroyed and American companies and consumers suffer most. The same applies to China, Japan, and the EU.
Furthermore, our standing in the international community would erode further. England is just beginning to see how their Brexit vote puts them at odds with the rest of Europe. Several companies have announced plans to leave England completely, dumping thousands of employees onto the unemployment rolls. Britain will lose its last AAA credit rating when it next comes up for review. Prices for goods produced outside Britain rise as higher tariffs are anticipated.
One bad judgement call started it all.
Not Much Left
We are seeing now just how severely this vote divides the UK, much as our own country is divided. Scottish first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, says that Scotland will almost certainly hold another referendum on leaving the UK, given that the whole of Scotland voted to remain with the EU. Members of Ireland’s Sein Finn also made statements this morning that the vote will likely fuel an effort to reunite Northern Ireland with the rest of the country. In the end, the UK may have nothing left but England and Wales by the time the Brexit is complete.
Such waves of populism are one of the primary arguments against democratic forms of government: there’s no way to stop the stupid. Every intelligent voice both inside the UK and around the world warned against the Brexit, but nationalistic-minded conservatives, fueled by an unrealistic fear of immigration, paid no attention to the warning.
A full exit from the EU will take approximately two years. There will be a lot of negotiation between the UE and the UK regarding trade, travel, and currency exchange. We have no way of knowing which direction those talks might go. However, when there are 28 countries teaming up against one that was always cantankerous, complaining, and acting like a bully, it doesn’t seem likely that Britain comes out on top.
The mighty have fallen. The world is upside down and twisting in the wind. Our best hope at the moment is that Americans don’t make the situation worse come November.
Surviving In 2016
We don’t develop courage by being happy every day. We develop it by surviving difficult times and challenging adversity.—Barbara de Angelis
Model: Sarah Thomas
Welcome to the real 2016. January 1 doesn’t count; it’s that in-between days when people my age and older worry about writing the wrong year on checks while our children and grandchildren stand by our sides asking, “What’s a check?” January 1 is for parades and football and corned beef if you’re in the Midwest, hog jowl or fat back if you’re in the South. January 1 isn’t a real day.
Today, however, is quite real. Bills are due, including rent in many cases. You may  have to go to work. Even if you have today off, since it’s Saturday, there are still things to do such as taking down the damn Christmas tree and tossing a tangled jumble of lights into the closet. Today, the holidays are officially over and the world is obligated to get back to the hectic rat race it left back in November. What will we do, however shall we survive? Fortunately, I have some solutions.
Stay warm.
I am amazed that, every year, people are severely crippled or die due to exposure. I’m not necessarily talking about homeless people, either, though that’s definitely a problem. People who know better and have sufficient means to protect themselves seem to hit January and think that Spring must be right around the corner. Wrong. Especially this year. We’ve got at least three months of cold starting us out here and the rest of the year is really going to suck if you lose extremities because you didn’t take care of yourself. Gloves. Hats. Heavy coats. They’re not just for the holidays, folks. Wear them. Surviving the year starts with staying alive.
Avoid politics (and politicians) whenever possible.
This is a presidential election year and all indications point toward this being one of the most ridiculously stupid campaigns ever. This year’s politicians are totally incapable of telling the truth about anything. Some of them can’t even get their own names correct, “Ted.” The only means of survival is to shut them down, turn them off, and vote for the one least likely to behave like a complete asshole when they reach office. Even worse, though, are people who ardently, feverishly, support a candidate. They will fill your Facebook timeline with some of the most ridiculous article links ever conceived. Unfollow them. Block them if they start getting too pushy. Pay no attention to the slime oozing behind the curtain. Turn them off. Surviving doesn’t mean surrendering your dignity.
Fight terror and violence by loving everyone.
After rampant wandering politicians, the biggest threat the United States faces this year is domestic violence and terrorism. The are some very stupid people out there who mistakenly believe that hate is justified by their religion and violence of some form is an acceptable answer. Â Nothing could possibly be more wrong. In response to these very misguided individuals, we can have only one response: love everyone. We really shouldn’t be threatened with violence or terrorism to do this, but if we want to shut down our biggest threats to national and personal security, loving each other is our only choice. That means loving each other regardless of religious affiliation, or race, or sexual orientation, or marital status, or whether they watch Fox News. The Beatles gave us the answer long ago: All you need is love.
Pay cash, save as much as possible.
We’ve been monitoring comments by different economists all year and, while they rarely agree on anything, it seems rather certain that we’re heading toward yet another global recession. Blame China. No, it’s not all their fault, but they make a much-too-obvious scapegoat. This is not the year to be running up a lot of unnecessary debt, especially not high-interest credit card debt, which is never a good idea in the first place. This year, when Samuel L. Jackson asks, “What’s in your wallet?” the answer needs to be, “Cash.” With a recession looming, I wouldn’t even trust banks enough to use a debit card. Sure, it’s not a convenient approach by any means, but it could save your ass when the next recession hits. Surviving means save as much as you can, keep as much as you can out of the hands of big banks.
Take more pictures: hire a professional.
For all the talk about Instagram and other online photo sharing applications, the number of good photographs, the ones worth handing down and saving for future generations, are declining. Why? Because you’re not paying for them. You’re taking lousy selfies instead of hiring a professional and what you’re getting in return is just digital trash. 98% of the photographs taken with cell phones are not worth preserving. Sure, our services are not inexpensive, but the value of a professional photograph grows with time, unlike the garbage on your phone that can disappear in an instant if someone spills a glass of water. Having professional, printed photographs are the best way to preserve your memories.
I can’t promise anyone a good year. There are a lot of obstacles that, quite honestly, have me a bit frightened. We cannot see the future, but we can prepare for the most obvious possibilities. Be safe out there, kids. Love each other. Spend wisely. Book your photo session now.  Surviving 2016 doesn’t need to be difficult; let’s do this together!
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