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Can AI Replace ME?
March 14, 2017
charles i. letbetter - can AI replace ME

Can machines actually be more creative than humans?

 

charles i. letbetter - can AI replace ME

The Short Story

McCann Japan (an ad agency) created a robot that used artificial intelligence to create a commercial that was preferable to the one created by humans. If AI ‘bots can do creative work, is there any job that is safe? Insert paranoia here.

Scary Truth

We’ve been hearing about artificial intelligence (AI) for a long time. You know, it’s that part of computer science where the computer learns and then teaches itself so that it’s always getting better information and making better decisions. We’ve all seen the horror stories. Either we all become floating puffs that do nothing, like in the Disney movie Wall-E, or the machines take over and decide we’re not necessary. Neither one is really a desirable outcome.

The reality of AI has looked a bit different than the dystopian nightmares of the movies. The personal assistant feature on your cell phone is an example. They “learn” from your repeated patterns and online habits. However, they don’t go out searching for larger and larger amounts of information on their own. They learn from what we give them. So, we limit the parameters of their learning and we stay safe, right?

Welllllll, not exactly.

You see, this brilliant person at McCann’s Japan office (McCann is a massively large ad agency), Shun Matsuzaka, created an AI bot that took massive amounts of advertising data, including response and expectation information and demographic data, and created a commercial. The commercial was for Clorets gum, emphasizing the 10-second burst of fresh breath one gets when first popping the gum. The commercial was compared to one for the same product created by humans. In an online poll, the human ad barely beat the AI ad by a narrow margin. When graded by ad executives, though. the AI ad won. Easily.

A robot not only did my job, it did all the jobs of an entire creative team, short of actually producing the commercial (real people had to get involved somewhere).

Okay, breathing deeply here, trying to not panic. The AI bot really only did data analysis and spit out a solution that then had to be fulfilled by humans who almost certainly made adjustments along the way. That’s not the same as actually taking a Creative Director’s job, except for the part where they … uhm, … well …

Yeah, this is fucking scary.

I didn’t mind AI too much when it was doing things like making dinner reservations and reminding me to pick up my laundry. I didn’t have anyone doing that for me before, so it was a help, not a hindrance.

AI taking over unskilled factory jobs hasn’t bothered me that much. We’ve seen it coming long enough to prepare for it, to help people in unskilled positions begin developing the skills they need to get better jobs that AI won’t fill until they’re dead, or at least retired.

But I’m growing increasingly concerned here. According to Forrester research, by 2025 AI robots of various forms will replace seven percent of the jobs that currently exist. Now, that number is misleading. That’s seven percent total job loss. What they’re slower to tell us is that sixteen percent of jobs, especially administrative and office support positions, will be gone. We’re supposed to be happy that nine percent of those jobs lost are replaced with other jobs, such as robot monitoring professionals, data scientists, automation specialists, and content curators. That seven percent is just the net loss.

That study was released last year, though, before Mr. Matsuzaka’s creative bot. This totally changed the equation. Creative services employee millions of people in almost every form of business in the world. If bots can take all those jobs, that number jumps much higher than seven percent.

Adding to the problem is the fact that other areas, such as engineering and construction, finance and service management, and logistics and distribution are all looking at ways AI can streamline their processes and complete them faster and more efficiently than do humans.

If there is any reprieve, it lies in the fact that there is a shortage of AI developers. For now. The biggest shortage at the moment in is the automotive sector, which is really trying to get something safe and driverless on the market ASAP. They’re spending millions of dollars on the bsst AI experts. If you’re looking for a career field, children, that’s the leader at the moment.

But where there is demand, there is always a market ready to fill it. If immigration becomes a problem, which is possible, companies will simply move AI development to where the talent is. The shortage won’t last for long.

Just this morning, after I thought I had this article finished, brokerage firm Charles Schwab announced they will begin using a hybrid robo-human method of dispensing investment advice. The human is just there primarily to keep investors from getting the heebie-jeebies working with an automated system. Those high-priced brokers could soon be without jobs.

Artificial Intelligence is coming for my job. For your job. For all our jobs. The bot at McCann’s? It’s going to try composing music next.

I can’t help but wonder if one day we all might forget how to think for ourselves at all.

With any luck, I’ll be dead by then.

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Advertising  /  Current Issues
Making A Statement
February 6, 2017
charles i. letbetter - making a statement

Some Super Bowl ads mean more than others

 

charles i. letbetter - making a statement

The Short Version

We all know that Super Bowl ads are special. They’d better be. At $5 million a pop for a 30-second ad, those commercials have to deliver a significant return on investment or they company won’t be back next year. A lot of advertisers find that value not by directly emphasizing their product, but by making a statement. This year, eight such ads ran during the big game. They came from It’s A 10 haircare products, AirBnB, Donate Life, FurKids, Audi, 84 Lumber, Budweiser, and Land O’Lakes.

Why Message Ads Work

Super Bowl advertising is so important that some brands have separate creative teams just for that one spot. The production takes thousands of hours over several months. They are tested on focus groups, modified, and then tested again. Everything has to be as close to perfect as possible. Even then, there are no guarantees. Not every ad works.

One of the biggest challenges to creating a Super Bowl ad is making it stand out. Viewers are not always paying attention. By half-time, interest is starting to wane and a fair portion of viewers are intoxicated. If the game’s not close, the second half can be a dead zone (obviously not the case with this year’s game). Getting viewers to stop and pay attention is challenging. A message ad works by interrupting the flow and getting viewers to think for a few seconds.

A significant difference this year, however, was the sensitivity viewers had to ads with a message.  Regional ad spots, which don’t factor in national comparisons, tended to be more political than others and every region had them. That put viewers on edge so that their reactions tended to be more extreme whether viewers were for or against the message.

However, any controversy associated with an ad only helps brand recognition. That is why brands are willing to step into that dangerous territory of making a statement. Sometimes stirring the pot is a good thing. Several companies have had success with such ads, so there’s a reasonable precedent for doing something that is not product-centric.

The Video, Please

Going through this year’s ads, we found eight that stand out because of the message they share. Some are funny. Some are serious. All manage to make a point.

It’s A 10

When the ad says we’re in for “four years of awful hair,” we know to whom they’re referring. The ad then goes on to celebrate people whose hair style are … unique.

 

AirBnB

The company that uses people’s homes as hotel rooms has raised a lot of ire in places where regular hotels worry about losing business and neighbors worry about “undesirables” coming to visit. AirBNB takes on the controversy of the president’s travel ban head on, though, with an ad directed toward a specific audience.

https://youtu.be/5qUTYHnLz2g

 

Donate Life

I have to admit, when I first saw this ad I really didn’t understand where they were going until the last 15 seconds. This one might have been more effective in a 30-second format. Still, the whole concept that even an asshole can do something good offers everyone a chance for some level of redemption.

https://youtu.be/JPNNi7KKmQs

 

FurKids

People have a soft spot for animals, especially kittens. Yet, animals shelters across the nation are still overwhelmed with the number of cats and kittens available for adoption. FurKids is a chain of animal shelters and, as such, have some who think they charge too much and question how their animals are treated. I can’t speak to those allegations. However, as an ad that makes a point about the need to adopt these animals, they’re spot on. Again, though, it could have been just as effective in a shorter version.

https://youtu.be/pfJJKUNrY7o

 

Audi

Wage equality is a significant issue and Audi waded into that topic head-on with an ad titled “Daughter.” While the ad features a father talking about how to explain wage inequality to his daughter, the ad is targeting the politically active group of feminist involved in the issue. The ad is extremely well done and drives its point home with clarity.

https://youtu.be/G6u10YPk_34

 

84 Lumber

You wouldn’t necessarily think that a lumber company would be into political controversy unless it was maybe about deforestation or some other environmental cause. 84 Lumber took on the entire immigration debate, though, with a poignant and moving ad that has anti-immigrant groups all kinds of upset. Note: this ad is a revision of the first run that actually showed a wall. The NFL nixed that one as being too political. Go figure. So, what we’re showing you here is the full short film, including the part with the wall.

 

Budweiser

The self-proclaimed “King of Beers” has produced some memorable Super Bowl ads over the years, especially those involving their trademarked Clydesdales. They didn’t go that direction this year, though. Instead, they went with the presumptive story of the beer’s founder, a German immigrant who suffered the stigma of being an immigrant at another time in our nation’s history when immigrants weren’t cool. The ad was produced and already in the can long before the current immigration issue even came up, but its poignancy can’t be missed. So much so that when the full ad was released last week, the hashtag #BoycottBudweiser came up. There is no indication that the hashtag had any effect on sales, but the commercial certainly has.

 

Land O’Lakes

Again, a dairy company doesn’t seem like it would be the likely source for a commercial as serious as “The Farmer.” We tend to expect something softer—with cows. However, Land O’Lakes is actually a farmer-owned co-op, so the ability of smaller, independent farmers to survive in an atmosphere where corporations seem about to consume the entire industry is a bit of a big deal. They don’t even mention a specific product, just the brand. Chances are, though, you’ll remember this ad the next time you’re wandering down the dairy aisle at your local grocery. Here’s the full version of the ad. The poem, by the way, is by Amelia E. Barr.

 

As for the rest …

Sure, there were plenty of ads that were loud and entertaining. A number of lists are ranking the Wix ad with Jason Statham and Gal Gadot as the best of the lot, and it certainly is an exciting 79 seconds. There were a couple of nostalgia pieces as well, with Bud Light bringing back the ghost of Spuds McKenzie and Xerox updating it’s “Miracle” spot with Brother Dominic from 40 years ago. There were plenty of entertaining ads to be had.

Still, these are the eight that carry the most weight and are likely to make the most difference. Who cares what size Big Mac® you get? Sometimes, how we respond to humanity matters more.

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Advertising  /  pop culture  /  video
Progress We Think We’ve Made
April 18, 2016
charles i. letbetter - progress we think we've made

Without continual growth and progress, such words as improvement, achievement, and success have no meaning. —Benjamin Franklin

 

charles i. letbetter - progress we think we've made

It’s easy enough to think that we’re above some of the errors of the past, but we may not be as progressive as we think.

I was left shaking my head this morning when Business Insider published an article with 18 ads we would consider horrible and terribly insensitive in today’s society. The purpose of the article was to give us the positive feeling that we have progressed significantly from the ads shown. Among them were racist soap ads, racist Jell-o ads, ads encouraging giving soda to infants, and ads denigrating women in just about every form imaginable. One aftershave ad even seems to encourage rape with copy that reads, “If she doesn’t give it to you, get it yourself.”

We like to think that we have progressed far beyond the stereotypes and social insensitivities of those ads. No one in their right mind today would put a picture of a pear with copy that says, “This Is No Shape For A Girl.” We know better, right? And we’ve even passed federal legislation so cigarette makers can no longer tell us that four out of five doctors smoke Camels. Yet, when we take a broad look at the bulk of advertising in place today, we may not have made as much progress as we would like to think.

Take a look through the advertising on your mobile device or, if you’re old school any major magazine. Notice how many of the ads still favor a stereotypical view of Caucasian people, especially in the areas of fashion, beauty, business, and travel. Within those sectors specifically, a whopping 80% of ads are tilted toward a white audience. Even worse, in many of those ads, especially those related to the hospitality industry, when a person of color is included in the ad it is almost always in a position of service, such as a waiter or hotel staff, further perpetuating the idea that those ethnicities are, for some stupid reason, supposed to serve the white man. Some studies in the health care area show that racial disparities in advertising actually have a negative impact upon the health status of disaffected populations.

Women aren’t faring much better. Just last year, the Bic company ran this ad:

This ad is so offensive to women on so many levels I have to wonder if there was any managerial or even adult oversight in the creation of this campaign. The very notion that women need to think like men for any reason is deplorable, and the inference that women aren’t already the boss are just the start. What does it mean to “look like a girl?” Exactly how does one “act like a lady?” Astonishingly, though, we still see this sort of advertising far too often.

The rape culture in advertising is still alive and well, also. An ad in Bloomingdale’s holiday catalog last year included the caption, “Spike your best friend’s egg nog when they’re not looking,” under a photo of a man leering at a young woman who wasn’t paying attention. Those are the kinds of attitudes that endanger women everywhere as they dismiss the concept of absolute consent. How are we still letting these things get into print?

Ads featuring gay, lesbian, or transgender people are still a hot button and advertising still gets it wrong as often as it gets it right. I hesitate to imagine what our children or grandchildren will think of us when they look back twenty years from now and see that ads such as this one still manage to get air time without censorship:

https://youtu.be/EumiDLgd-T4

Fortunately, the New Hampshire bill passed and the Supreme Court finalized the question of gay marriage, but that doesn’t mean that advertising has caught up or has any fewer stereotypes of gay and lesbian couples than it did before. Even if we didn’t have a part in the creation of such politically misguided advertising, we should be embarrassed that we would even allow such patently offensive material to air in the first place.

Even more liberal advertisers have not made as much progress as we would like to think. People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals (PeTA) only removed this billboard after an overwhelmingly large public outcry against it:

Even by 1970s standards, that ad is offensive not to mention that it is misinformative. Eating a vegetarian diet doesn’t help if one’s general intake and eating habits are still unhealthy. Yes, there are diabetic and obese vegetarians. Shaming people because of their size is not helpful.

Ad agencies like to think they’re at the forefront of bringing out social change. Certainly, there are a number of ad campaigns that have done a lot of good in moving us to be more inclusive, understanding, and accepting of each other, as well as encouraging more healthy behavior. But before we get a cramp patting ourselves on the back, we need to take a good look at the places where we still reinforce old stereotypes and insensitive and offensive behavior. We’ve likely not made as much progress as we would like to think.

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Advertising
Violent Valentines
February 13, 2016
charles i. letbetter - violent valentines

The human mind is capable of excitement without the application of gross and violent stimulants; and he must have a very faint perception of its beauty and dignity who does not know this.—William Wordsworth

 

charles i. letbetter - violent valentines

Sure, relationships are rocky and arguments happen, but at no point is violence justified

Valentines Day has this bad habit of bringing out all the smarmy, cheesy, lovey-dovey ads about relationships that are too good to be real. Chances are, you started seeing them in mid-January and by now are ready to barf at the first sign of flowers, chocolate, or anything that sparkles. Ads for the holiday really ramp up the emotion in an effort to make you feel guilty if you don’t buy something expensive to show your love. Of course, you know that such a philosophy of love having a monetary value is faulty, but each year we buy into the concept more and more, so the ads just keep coming.

This year, Pandora (the jeweler, not the streaming music service) has a new ad that takes a slightly different approach. The concept is not so much that buying your spouse or significant other jewelry is an act of love as much as it is a plea for forgiveness. The general idea is a good one, given the number of guys who typically find themselves in hot water this time of year over some relationship gaffe.

The ad, directed by Martin Werner, is humorously set to music from Verdi’s opera, La Traviata, specifically the duet, Libiamo ne’lieti calici from the first act. The music is familiar, even to those who don’t know the opera. Giving the tenor reason to show off his vocal prowess is the whole reason for the song in the opera, and his first solo can be translated as follows:

Let’s drink, let’s drink from the joyous chalices
that beauty so truly enhances.
And may the brief moment be inebriated
with voluptuousness.
Let’s drink for the ecstatic feeling
that love arouses.
Because this eye aims straight to the heart, omnipotently.
Let’s drink, my love, and the love among the chalices
will make the kisses warmer.

Don’t be fooled, while love is occasionally mentioned, this is a drinking song, which is why the chorus keeps joyfully joining in from time to time. The song is a lot of fun and a favorite among opera fans.

Pandora uses the song, however, as a way of covering up the arguments taking place in the ads. There are multiple scenarios, but they all come to one joint conclusions: guys infuriate women and need to beg for forgiveness by heaping large amounts of diamonds upon their loved ones. Take a look at the ad and then I’ll continue my comments.

https://youtu.be/PRtt0LNm7CI

Okay, so the ad is a bit tongue in cheek, and the different approach to Valentine’s Day is appreciated. I was fine right up until the moment it gets violent and the women start throwing things. Sure, in the ad none of the objects actually hit their target, but what if they had? Were those situations to take place in real life, the outcome would likely be severe enough that all the diamonds in the world couldn’t fix it.

Here’s the thing: domestic violence is a real problem. General statistics run like this:

  • Around the world, at least one in every three women has been beaten, coerced into sex or otherwise abused during her lifetime. Most often, the abuser is a member of her own family.
  • Domestic violence is the leading cause of injury to women—more than car accidents, muggings, and rapes combined.
  • Studies suggest that up to 10 million children witness some form of domestic violence annually.
  • Nearly 1 in 5 teenage girls who have been in a relationship said a boyfriend threatened violence or self-harm if presented with a breakup.
  • Everyday in the US, more than three women are murdered by their husbands or boyfriends.

However, one of the things those statistics hide, and which is often ignored, is that men are more likely to be the victims of violent domestic abuse at the hands of an intimate partner. A national survey conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the Department of Justice shows that over 40% of victims of severe physical violence are men. The study also showed that men are more frequently, “the victim of psychological aggression and control over sexual or reproductive health.”

No matter how lightly it is treated, domestic violence is never funny and cannot be covered up by diamonds or candy or flowers. Depicting women violently throwing vases at men is just as wrong as if it were the other way around. Obviously, no one at Pandora thought of that tragedy. Men who are the victims of violent abuse don’t like to bring it up.

This is a very bad direction for an ad to take. While it’s too late to do anything about this ad now, I do hope the folks at Pandora show better sense in the future..

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Advertising
What Women Really Want
January 14, 2016
charles i. letbetter - what women really want

Living with integrity means: Not settling for less than what you know you deserve in your relationships. Asking for what you want and need from others. Speaking your truth, even though it might create conflict or tension. Behaving in ways that are in harmony with your personal values. Making choices based on what you believe, and not what others believe.—Barbara De Angelis

 

charles i. letbetter - what women want

Could a beer company have an answer to one of humanity’s oldest questions?

“What do women want?”

On most days I would respond to that question with a cynical, “Hell if I know,” and keep going. Most intelligent men know better than attempting to answer a question they can never hope to get correct. Every woman is different and, therefore, is going to have different desires and wants than the one sitting next to her. There’s no one desire that is universal to them all. Besides, “you can’t please everyone,” is another platitude with which we are all well aware. We should know the futility of trying to please women.

However, a study of premium beer drinkers between the ages of 21-35 showed that knowing your limit, drinking in moderation rather than getting shit-faced, passed-out drunk has a certain coolness factor. Millenials prefer hanging out with people who don’t let their drink define them. Women, especially, prefer partners who remain sober throughout the evening. So, the good folks over at Publicis Italy, a division of Publicis Worldwide, used that information as the basis for a new ad for a client very involved in the subject of over drinking: Heineken.

This isn’t the first time Heineken has taken on the subject of responsible drinking. Two years ago, their “Drink Less, Dance More,” campaing featuring DJ Armin Van Buren, examined how a DJ that keeps people dancing reduces the amount of drinking in a Miami night club.

Nuno Teles, CMO of Heineken USA told AdWeek, “Responsibility is becoming an active and attractive choice for a motivated generation who want to stay in control.”

This opens up the question of whether millennials are learning from the sins of their parents and correcting their bad habits. While we might like to give the generation some credit for doing better than we did, the numbers aren’t necessarily flattering.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) keeps track of binge drinking. While the problem is not unique to males, nor to millennials, there are some specific challenges needing to be addressed. Consider this list of disturbing facts:

  • 70% of binge drinking episodes involve adults age 26 years and older.
  • Men are twice as likely to binge drink as are women.
  • Most people who binge drink are not alcohol dependents, or what we might commonly refer to as “drunks.”
  • Binge drinking is for the upper middle class and higher, those with over $75,000 in annual income.
  • Roughly 90% of those under 21 who drink are involved in binge drinking.
  • Binge drinkers are more likely to drive drunk.
  • More than half the alcohol consumed in the US is done in the form of binge drinking.

The problem is so significant that a number of colleges and universities now have departments and facilities set up to deal with the issue and some have even banned certain fraternity activities in an attempt to reduce the amount of binge drinking on campus.

With a problem so very big, is one ad enough to make a significant change in the problem? That’s difficult to say. While the campaign started in 30 worldwide markets this week, it would take an immense amount of targeting and a more significant than usual budget to get the ad in front of the right eyes enough times for the message to sink in. The ad uses a soft, subtle visual backed by a popular, pounding soundtrack. Young men are notoriously thick-headed (I know because I’m still that way). We can’t expect them to get the message without seeing the ad several times, possibly in the company of young women who point out the commercial’s purpose.

Still, we have to applaud Publicis Italy and Heineken for at least taking on the issue, especially going into the Super Bowl and Spring Break, both of which are notoriously heavy drinking times for college-age students. Here’s the ad. Feel free to share with someone who might benefit from paying attention.

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