Sunday, January 19, 2025

Calculating The Risks.

There are risks to almost everything we do. Have I had enough sleep or too much? Are these clothes too heavy or too light for the weather outside? Am I drinking too much coffee (NEVER!)? Am I taking too much medicine? Is the unknown person who just hit my DMs real or a bot? One of life’s greatest challenges is that we don’t know what we don’t know. There are moments when the best option we have is to fuck around and find out. This morning is one of those moments.

Last week I was about to walk into the kitchen when I saw Tipper standing there in her furry costume, oversized monster head and all. I paused, unsure of what was going on. She began to dance. She danced for about 15 seconds, then ran over and turned off the video on her phone. She was on TikTok. While I might consider our small, cramped kitchen an inappropriate space for any picture, Tipper was having a blast interacting with her friends.

Tipper isn’t awake yet (no surprise there), so I don’t know how she’s going to respond to finding out that her favorite app isn’t working this morning. I don’t expect a great deal of anguish on her part because she has other sources of communication open and she’s not afraid to use them. All of them. At the same time. For her generation, apps are a fluid space. When one goes down, two or three more pop up to take its place.

What’s interesting is that TikTok is being shut down over a perceived risk that China is using the tool to skim off personal information. China has denied the allegations while First Amendment advocates claim that free speech dominates over a risk that might not be real. Yet, there’s something we don’t know that has caused two administrations, Congress, and the United States Supreme Court to support banning the app. We’re not getting the full picture, one that apparently scares the shit out of those who are in the know. So, we’re banning the use of the app, just to be safe. The risks are too high.

Of course, not everyone agrees, which is acceptable. One person on Blue Sky lamented that it seems strange to worry about the risk of Chinese spies when we’re letting the devil himself into the Oval Office. While I can certainly appreciate that view, my instinct tells me that the government is making the right move. China is not to be trusted. They’ve never been trustworthy at any point in my lifetime. Regardless of the trade between them and the rest of the world, China has repeatedly proven that every move they make has behind it the intention to dominate on a political level. The risk is likely more severe than anyone outside China’s Communist Party knows.

And there’s another risk raised by the New York Times. What if no one misses TikTok? After all, it’s not like the app is out there saving lives. The videos are more silly than informational. Most creators are kids having fun with their friends. So, what happens if they just shrug off the blackout and move on to a completely different interest? It’s a question that can’t be answered until they all start waking up this morning.

The TikTok ban seems irrelevant when compared to some other risks. Guard troops will wear a special patch at Trump’s inauguration to make it clear they aren’t police. Noting that a) every law enforcement branch seems to be wearing camo these days, and b) Far-right actors have shown open hostility toward police in the past, the National Guard wants to make sure that genuinely stupid people can tell the difference between Guard troops and police at the inauguration. The risk is real. Many extreme supporters of Felonious Punk are violent and even more of them are really, really, really, really stupid.

Moving the inauguration indoors to the very Capitol rotunda that some of the same people stormed four years ago creates more risks. Judges allow some Capitol riot defendants to return to DC for the Felon’s inauguration. At the same time, that doesn’t mean they’ll be able to get inside the Capitol as space for the event is quite limited. How will they respond to being left out in the cold? One has to acknowledge the risk, but at the same time, one would expect the risk to be mitigated by their support for the incoming president. We’ll just have to see how it goes, won’t we?

Here’s another risk that probably isn’t getting sufficient attention: It’s not clear who will lead the Pentagon when the Felon takes office. What happens then? There currently is no appointee to lead the Defense Department. A significant number of people are stepping down tomorrow and that institution built on chain-of-command strategies isn’t going to know who’s in charge. Who has the final say on things? Who’s going to take responsibility if something goes wrong? Can the military respond appropriately should there be an attack?

Of course, there’s a backup plan and a backup plan to the backup plan. However, anyone who’s been in the military will be quick to tell you that such plans get set aside when politics comes into play. For all its rules and regulations, the Pentagon is mired deeply in both internal and external politics. The fight for who gets to call the shots has been present for generations, even causing disasters on the battlefield. We can hope that our enemies are not ready to take advantage of this obvious weakness, but all the hoping in the world doesn’t make anyone any safer.

The biggest risk of all? If you live in the continental United States, your pipes could burst this week. Subzero temperatures will blanket the US starting early Monday morning and carrying through at least Wednesday. Such a severe cold puts the nation’s plumbing at risk no matter how much insulation one has. Yes, there are things one can do, such as leaving faucets running constantly for the next three days, but that, in turn, creates other risks as well. In our house, we have a number of cats who would rather drink the water running from the tap than from their water bowl. That increases the risks of things being knocked off the counter and breaking.

No one is immune from risk. Even if you don’t have cats rushing up to your kitchen sink, simply stepping outside and breathing the cold air puts one at risk. Heaters carry risks. Thermal clothes have risks. There’s no escaping the fact that our lives have a lot of risks and there’s not a lot we can do about any of it.

And now I’m hearing cats in the empty bathtub. Cats with zoomies are a risk.

My personal plan is to watch where I step and drink more coffee. Beyond that, whatever happens, happens.