Getting Back To Normal
Chances are slim that I could ever convince Kat to climb a tree like this again. Not that I question her ability, mind you. She is still a force of nature that does pretty much anything she sets her mind to doing even if she probably shouldn’t. When I asked her to climb the tree twelve years ago, she didn’t even bother taking off her sandals and was up there in no time. Now, if I were to make a similar request, I imagine her response would be more along the lines of, “Why? Are you trying to kill me?”
There are days when it seems that Kat and I are in a contest to see who can die first. The effects of her pulmonary embolism in November are long-term. Her doctor told her that it would be three to six months before she would start breathing normally again. I don’t think the doctor understood that giving Kat a warning like that is like handing her a challenge. Already, she’s overworking herself, and while she’s setting a few more boundaries, other health issues are beginning to pop up because she doesn’t feel she can afford to take the time off.
When I stepped outside with the dogs this morning, the first breath of cold air hurt everything from my nose to my lungs. The temperature is 15 degrees Fahrenheit and that’s before the windchill is factored. I don’t need to be out in that mess. Kat doesn’t need to be out in it, either, but she’s still planning on going to the salon for a few hours today. She’ll spend the night in Fishers, per usual, but it almost certainly will be snowing before she heads back home tomorrow afternoon.
Snow? We’ve not had decent snow in Indy in the past twelve years. We were sitting on about seven inches of the white stuff when Kat and I first met, and it was normal enough then that few people gave such snow totals a second thought. We’ve not seen anywhere near that amount since then, though. That’s twelve years of people not having to drive in the dangerous conditions that higher amounts of snow present. The Department of Public Works has completely changed its street plowing strategy since then. People who grew up here are claiming that they’re not worried and Kat’s response yesterday was, “I’ll believe it when I see it.”
I understand the skepticism. There have been plenty of other times when the forecast called for three to four inches of snow and we ended up barely getting enough to cover the ground. I bought a new snow shovel four years ago and only once has it been used to remove the less-than-two inches of white stuff on the sidewalk. It’s not like meteorologists are exactly reliable with these forecasts.
But then, at 2:30 this morning my phone woke me with a weather alert. The National Weather Service had just issued a Winter Storm Warning for a significant chunk of the Midwest, through 4:00 PM on Monday. How large a storm are we talking about? Here’s the warning map. The pink areas are where snow totals are likely to be the highest.
Kansas, Nebraska, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, and Ohio are in for a rough couple of days. Plenty of other areas are likely to see a mixture of snow and ice (purple-colored on the map). The storm, an ‘Alberta Clipper’ by colloquial standards, is not a matter of ‘if’ but ‘when.’ Most local meteorologists put the beginning of the snow in Inday around noon on Sunday. Extrapolate from there. Kansas/Nebraska are likely to see it early tomorrow morning. Ohio won’t see it until midafternoon.
Local meteorologists, having been burned on forecasts several times over the past decade, are hedging their bets on snow totals. Here are the accumulation predictions from all four Indianapolis television stations.
As you can see, even the local teams (and they’re all teams at this point) can’t agree on the totals. Each has chosen a different model based largely on past experience rather than actual knowledge. The truth is much more difficult to nail down. Variables such as ground temperature, wind, barometric pressure, and moisture saturation levels all can change within any given ten-foot radius. Totals will vary from one neighborhood to another. Things such as building density, foliage coverage, the ratio of concrete to water to dirt, and the presence of nearby heat generators such as factories all contribute to how much show one sees in their front yard.
[Non-sequiter: there is the shadow of a bird in my window and I have four cats in here staring at it, ready to pounce. The whole scene is rather hilarious.]
What does all this mean? This is more than a bread-and-milk alert. While sunshine should return by Wednesday, temps won’t get above freezing all week, and overnight lows will be down in the single digits Wednesday-Saturday at least. That creates a situation where any area not completely cleared during the day will freeze over during the night, creating dangerous conditions for anyone attempting to get to work. The Department of Public Works is limited in its ability to fight icing. Despite near-whiteout conditions Sunday afternoon, the more dangerous driving periods could be Wednesday and Thursday mornings.
Again, long-time residents of the Midwest remember when this kind of weather was just normal for the winter months. The first year I was here (2005), it started snowing on Thanksgiving and there was still snow on the ground in late April. From that perspective, this type of weather pattern isn’t particularly shocking or unusual. The population has changed significantly in the past decade, however. The Midwest has become a popular relocation destination over the years and there is a significant part of the population that legitimately doesn’t know what to do.
Everyone likes to think they can drive on snow, but no, you can’t. There’s almost certainly ice under that snow and your four-wheel or front-wheel drive vehicle won’t help with that. Most accidents occur on residential streets which are never plowed until major roads are clear and even then have to leave a two-inch buffer to avoid raised manhole covers. This is stay-the-fuck-home-and-wait-for-it-to-pass weather. Bake cookies. Build interesting snow scenes ala ‘Calvin & Hobbes.’ Keep your pets inside unless you have a beast like Hamilton who actually thrives in the cold. Getting him to come back inside this morning was a pain in the ass.
Next to the cold temps, wind speeds are probably the biggest concern and almost impossible to predict until they’re here. High winds result in drifting snow and downed powerlines. Stocking up on heavy blankets and protein bars probably isn’t a bad idea.
Will I be out in the snow taking pictures? We’ll see. If I do, I am more likely to use my phone camera rather than the Nikon. I don’t want my lens getting messed up by street chemicals or having the shutter freeze as they sometimes do in below-freezing temps. The sad fact is that I have no business being out in the stuff, but it’s been so long since we’ve had a decent snowfall that it will be difficult to resist. I’m not making any promises in either direction.
Meanwhile, I’m surrounded by furry animals who like to cuddle, we have plenty of coffee with more than one way to brew it, and there are enough blankets for everyone. We’ll be okay. The only one who’s questionable is Kat. She’s not going to listen to anyone but herself. Good thing she’s smart.