Sunday, January 19, 2025
Calculating The Risks.
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There are risks to almost everything we do. Have I had enough sleep or too much? Are these clothes too heavy or too light for the weather outside? Am I drinking too much coffee (NEVER!)? Am I taking too much medicine? Is the unknown person who just hit my DMs real or a bot? One of life’s greatest challenges is that we don’t know what we don’t know. There are moments when the best option we have is to fuck around and find out. This morning is one of those moments.
Last week I was about to walk into the kitchen when I saw Tipper standing there in her furry costume, oversized monster head and all. I paused, unsure of what was going on. She began to dance. She danced for about 15 seconds, then ran over and turned off the video on her phone. She was on TikTok. While I might consider our small, cramped kitchen an inappropriate space for any picture, Tipper was having a blast interacting with her friends.
Tipper isn’t awake yet (no surprise there), so I don’t know how she’s going to respond to finding out that her favorite app isn’t working this morning. I don’t expect a great deal of anguish on her part because she has other sources of communication open and she’s not afraid to use them. All of them. At the same time. For her generation, apps are a fluid space. When one goes down, two or three more pop up to take its place.
What’s interesting is that TikTok is being shut down over a perceived risk that China is using the tool to skim off personal information. China has denied the allegations while First Amendment advocates claim that free speech dominates over a risk that might not be real. Yet, there’s something we don’t know that has caused two administrations, Congress, and the United States Supreme Court to support banning the app. We’re not getting the full picture, one that apparently scares the shit out of those who are in the know. So, we’re banning the use of the app, just to be safe. The risks are too high.
Of course, not everyone agrees, which is acceptable. One person on Blue Sky lamented that it seems strange to worry about the risk of Chinese spies when we’re letting the devil himself into the Oval Office. While I can certainly appreciate that view, my instinct tells me that the government is making the right move. China is not to be trusted. They’ve never been trustworthy at any point in my lifetime. Regardless of the trade between them and the rest of the world, China has repeatedly proven that every move they make has behind it the intention to dominate on a political level. The risk is likely more severe than anyone outside China’s Communist Party knows.
And there’s another risk raised by the New York Times. What if no one misses TikTok? After all, it’s not like the app is out there saving lives. The videos are more silly than informational. Most creators are kids having fun with their friends. So, what happens if they just shrug off the blackout and move on to a completely different interest? It’s a question that can’t be answered until they all start waking up this morning.
The TikTok ban seems irrelevant when compared to some other risks. Guard troops will wear a special patch at Trump’s inauguration to make it clear they aren’t police. Noting that a) every law enforcement branch seems to be wearing camo these days, and b) Far-right actors have shown open hostility toward police in the past, the National Guard wants to make sure that genuinely stupid people can tell the difference between Guard troops and police at the inauguration. The risk is real. Many extreme supporters of Felonious Punk are violent and even more of them are really, really, really, really stupid.
Moving the inauguration indoors to the very Capitol rotunda that some of the same people stormed four years ago creates more risks. Judges allow some Capitol riot defendants to return to DC for the Felon’s inauguration. At the same time, that doesn’t mean they’ll be able to get inside the Capitol as space for the event is quite limited. How will they respond to being left out in the cold? One has to acknowledge the risk, but at the same time, one would expect the risk to be mitigated by their support for the incoming president. We’ll just have to see how it goes, won’t we?
Here’s another risk that probably isn’t getting sufficient attention: It’s not clear who will lead the Pentagon when the Felon takes office. What happens then? There currently is no appointee to lead the Defense Department. A significant number of people are stepping down tomorrow and that institution built on chain-of-command strategies isn’t going to know who’s in charge. Who has the final say on things? Who’s going to take responsibility if something goes wrong? Can the military respond appropriately should there be an attack?
Of course, there’s a backup plan and a backup plan to the backup plan. However, anyone who’s been in the military will be quick to tell you that such plans get set aside when politics comes into play. For all its rules and regulations, the Pentagon is mired deeply in both internal and external politics. The fight for who gets to call the shots has been present for generations, even causing disasters on the battlefield. We can hope that our enemies are not ready to take advantage of this obvious weakness, but all the hoping in the world doesn’t make anyone any safer.
The biggest risk of all? If you live in the continental United States, your pipes could burst this week. Subzero temperatures will blanket the US starting early Monday morning and carrying through at least Wednesday. Such a severe cold puts the nation’s plumbing at risk no matter how much insulation one has. Yes, there are things one can do, such as leaving faucets running constantly for the next three days, but that, in turn, creates other risks as well. In our house, we have a number of cats who would rather drink the water running from the tap than from their water bowl. That increases the risks of things being knocked off the counter and breaking.
No one is immune from risk. Even if you don’t have cats rushing up to your kitchen sink, simply stepping outside and breathing the cold air puts one at risk. Heaters carry risks. Thermal clothes have risks. There’s no escaping the fact that our lives have a lot of risks and there’s not a lot we can do about any of it.
And now I’m hearing cats in the empty bathtub. Cats with zoomies are a risk.
My personal plan is to watch where I step and drink more coffee. Beyond that, whatever happens, happens.
Thursday, January 30, 2025
Watch Out For That Rabbit Hole!
One of the worst things to do to my brain is to feed it a headline without context. Within seconds, my mind creates its own context, then proceeds to take that context out of context and head off down rabbit holes from which there is no return. The first partial headline I saw this morning, just at a glance as I was getting dressed, read, “Are we all aliens?” As I snapped the last button on my shirt, my brain began singing Petra’s 1983 song, “We are aliens. We are strangers. We are not of this world.” The song is based loosely on I Peter 2:11, which uses a similar phrasing but is in conflict with Ephesians 2:19 which specifically says that we are not strangers and aliens, both of which have issues with I Chronicles 29:15, which claims that our ancestors were “aliens and pilgrims before you.” This was one of those times when having all that Bible stuck in my head could be a problem.
Oh, but then my brain jumps completely out of context while I’m outside with the dogs and somehow, “We are aliens” becomes “Everything’s Coming Up Roses” from the musical Gypsy, but specifically the version sung by the late Ethel Merman. Why? Because I’m just that old. As my brain is singing, “You’ll be swell, you’ll be great, Gonna have the whole world on a plate!” Belvedere walks around the side of the house with a large paper plate in his mouth. I asked him if he had the whole world on that plate. He put the plate down and looked up at me as if to say, “I ate that part. Can we have breakfast now?”
Hound dogs; they’re always hungry.
The story on everyone’s mind this morning is the collision of an American Airlines regional jet with a military helicopter at Ronald Reagan Airport just before 9:00 last night. I saw the alert come across as I was getting ready for bed last night, but the event was too new for there to be any detail. What we know this morning is that the plane, which originated in Wichita, KS, was carrying members of the US Figure Skating team, their families, friends, and coaches. Officials are warning that the precise number of victims is unclear as rescue crews hunt for survivors. One headline I saw claimed there were at least 19 fatalities, but crews are still searching the Potmomac and no names have been officially released.
This is the first major aircraft collision in the US in almost 16 years. There are going to be a lot of questions over the next several days stretching into months and possibly years. Did the president’s firing of the head of TSA last week have any impact? Was there a shortage of aircraft controllers in the Ronald Reagan Tower? Who was given permission to enter the airspace first?
A 2023 article in the NYTimes claimed that near misses between commercial aircraft happen more often than people realize. FAA Data Reveals 1100 Runway Near Misses in 2024. This raises the inevitable question of who the fuck’s in charge? Expect a lot of finger-pointing as no one wants that responsibility laid at their feet.
Last May, we had an older couple park on our lawn for the 500. He was a retired aircraft controller who had been in that job since Ronald Reagan (yeah, the same guy for whom the airport is named) fired all the nation’s controllers for attempting to go on strike. I asked him if all the horror stories I’d heard were true. He confirmed them and more. Burnout among controllers is high. They are overworked, undertrained, and under constant pressure to work longer hours. They are inherently aware that they hold the lives of thousands of people in their hands as they guide aircraft across tarmacs. While English is the default language, many pilots don’t understand it that well and miscommunications are common. Equipment frequently breaks down, especially at night when there are no maintenance people available. While flying has always been considered one of the safest modes of transportation, he explained that it is a mixture of miracles and hard work that has prevented more accidents from occurring.
I know that for many people, last night’s collision is a tragic break from the neverending political horrors being shoved down our throats. Ten days in, we’re tired of the nonsense from this administration already. One can safely assume at this point that every decision made in the White House is unconstitutional and is going to have a significant legal fight ahead of it.
As I’m typing, an alert just came through my phone saying that 27 bodies have been recovered and all are feared dead.
You know, if the base DNA material that allowed life to develop on this planet is foreign, that could explain why this planet is always trying to kill us; it sees humans as a disease that needs to be eradicated. That would so easily justify the high number of biological elements that conflict with our health and well-being. We get cancer and are susceptible to plagues because our DNA was never designed for this planet.
But if we came from stardust, then it may well be that we leave the same way. Another headline well below the fold this morning warns that a newly spotted asteroid has a tiny chance of hitting Earth in 2032. This news isn’t as ‘new’ as one might think. Astronomers have been watching this thing for a while, concerned that its potential path might bring it close enough to Earth’s orbit that a collision would be inevitable. The chances for severe damage currently sit at about 1%. They could drop to zero in the next few weeks. Still, it’s interesting to ponder the possibility that the same type of event that allowed us to form on this planet could be what takes us all out.
Rabbit holes. Damnit. Kronk, aka Pinball, just crawled up in my lap, put his head in my hand, and closed his eyes. I think that means I’m done typing for the morning. We have naps to take and more rabbit holes to explore.
And coffee. Must drink the coffee.
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